BJ Deming

Popocatepetl, 2023: May 21 (0304 UTC)

Status:

Yellow, Phase 2.

Update, May 20, 2023, 8:04 p.m., Pacific: Just before 3 p.m., local time, today — a couple hours after I saw a report that the scientific committee had met and decided to continue the alert at ORANGE, PHASE 2, Popo did this and, per SkyAlert, has been having strombolian activity ever since:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

It’s a rainy night, though, and little can be seen.

Current VAAC advisory:

FVXX20 KNES 202222
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20230520/2222Z
VAAC: WASHINGTON
VOLCANO: POPOCATEPETL 341090
PSN: N1901 W09837
AREA: MEXICO
SUMMIT ELEV: 17693 FT (5393 M)
ADVISORY NR: 2023/608
INFO SOURCE: GOES-16. WEBCAM. NWP MODELS. ASH3D.
ERUPTION DETAILS: LRG VA EM OBSD.
OBS VA DTG: 20/2151Z
OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL270 N1934 W09814 – N1911 W09823
– N1901 W09841 – N1902 W09841 – N1932 W09837 –
N1934 W09814 MOV NE 30KT
FCST VA CLD +6HR: 21/0400Z SFC/FL220 N1940 W09802
– N1914 W09747 – N1901 W09840 – N1903 W09842 –
N1940 W09802 SFC/FL270 N2056 W09706 – N2001
W09614 – N1932 W09655 – N2014 W09752 – N2056
W09706
FCST VA CLD +12HR: 21/1000Z SFC/FL220 N1932
W09731 – N1846 W09734 – N1900 W09842 – N1904
W09842 – N1932 W09731 SFC/FL270 N2148 W09524 –
N2028 W09434 – N2011 W09517 – N2133 W09622 –
N2148 W09524
FCST VA CLD +18HR: 21/1600Z SFC/FL220 N1914
W09705 – N1822 W09731 – N1900 W09843 – N1905
W09842 – N1914 W09705 SFC/FL270 NO VA EXP
RMK: ERUPTION BEGAN AT 2053Z PER WEBCAM. VA OBSD
EXTDG TO ABT 30 N MI NE OF THE SUMMIT. FL ESTD FM
NWP MDLS AND WEBCAMS. FURTHER VA EMS LKLY TO
REMAIN AT FLS BFR 2053Z EM. FCSTS BASED ON ASH3D.
…HOSLEY
NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20230521/0415Z

The winds have shifted, so it’s back on Puebla again.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Volcanic ash + rain = A mess.

Hopefully, that and a few transportation problems will be all the hassles that result, and not too much of those. I don’t think Don Goyo has produced enough ash — even though it doesn’t take all that much, wet — to weigh down roofs and other structures. Of course, leaching into water supplies and onto crops and livestock might be a concern, too — but again, not sure how much.

Here is some technical information about that impressive explosion (read the whole thread):

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

The four-camera view is reportedly (autotranslated; popup ad alert) part of a new military monitoring center established in Puebla.

Good morning, Don Goyo!

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

May 20, 2023,5:55 a.m., Pacific: Popocatépetl had a rough time overnight, although weather obscured it initially for a while.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

CENAPRED issued an update just before 9:30 p.m., local (via Google Translate):

May 19, 9:25 p.m. (May 20, 03:25 GMT)

Update of the report, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, incandescence and some fragments were observed on the slopes of the volcano, although there is no visibility of the volcano’s crater due to the weather conditions in the area, the emissions will have a West (W) direction. , (image 1). CENAPRED emphatically reiterates the recommendation NOT TO ASCEND to the volcano’s crater, since there is the possibility of explosions occurring, as has been seen on several occasions in the past, involving the emission of incandescent fragments (image 2). Therefore, it is insisted on respecting the exclusion radius of 12 km. Likewise, in case of heavy rains, move away from the bottom of ravines due to the danger of mud and debris flows.

The Popocatépetl Volcanic Alert Traffic Light is in YELLOW PHASE 2.

Here is someone’s breakdown of the night’s activity.

At the present moment, hours after that strombolian episode, Popo appears to be in a much calmer mood, and one of the experts I follow on Twitter notes that this is within expected YELLOW, PHASE 2 activity.

However, winds were such that ash fell in northern Mexico City, and they announced earlier this morning that Juarez Airport there is closed due to ash. They’ve just announced extension of the closure for another two hours.

This was tweeted about four hours ago from the city:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

By way of SkyAlertMx

Meanwhile in Puebla, which got a break thanks to the wind shift, the weather forecast, as usual, includes seismicity and volcanic alert level:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

In Mexico City, they are encouraged to follow tips in the guidebooks:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Earlier posts:

Featured image Popocatépetl in early 2019, by Puebla Civil Protection (Spanish)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

Gravatar
WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Cancel

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.