BJ Deming

Popocatépetl 2023 (Through May 17, 2023, 1955 UTC)

May 17, 2023,12:55 p.m., Pacific: Still YELLOW, PHASE 2, per CENAPRED this morning, but authorities and the armed forces reportedly (autotranslated) are checking evacuation routes.

According to this story
(autotranslated), it would take 72 hours to clear the communities closest to Don Goyo.

A Twitter check shows Puebla authorities hard at work debunking rumors and reminding everyone to check with the responsible sources.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Meanwhile, although the mountain is hidden by clouds on webcams, they just hoisted another VAAC advisory about an hour and a half ago:

FVXX20 KNES 171703
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20230517/1703Z
VAAC: WASHINGTON
VOLCANO: POPOCATEPETL 341090
PSN: N1901 W09837
AREA: MEXICO
SUMMIT ELEV: 17693 FT (5393 M)
ADVISORY NR: 2023/594
INFO SOURCE: GOES-16. WEBCAM. NWP MODELS. VOLCAT.
ERUPTION DETAILS: VA EMS CONT
OBS VA DTG: 17/1636Z
OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL230 N1907 W09645 – N1835 W09647
– N1859 W09838 – N1903 W09838 – N1907 W09645 MOV
E 20KT
FCST VA CLD +6HR: 17/2230Z SFC/FL230 N1915 W09629
– N1835 W09628 – N1859 W09838 – N1904 W09838 –
N1915 W09629
FCST VA CLD +12HR: 18/0430Z SFC/FL230 N1933
W09624 – N1853 W09617 – N1858 W09838 – N1902
W09838 – N1933 W09624
FCST VA CLD +18HR: 18/1030Z SFC/FL230 N1922
W09619 – N1844 W09617 – N1859 W09838 – N1904
W09838 – N1922 W09619
RMK: VA EMS CONT AS OBS FM STLT AND WEBCAM. LRG
VA CLD SEEN MV E ABT 60 NM FM SUMMIT. MDL WINDS
EXP TO REMAIN MOSTLY E THRU T+18 HRS. …BROWN
NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20230517/2300Z

Update, May 15, 10:19 a.m., Pacific: Per this morning’s bulletin, Popo is still at YELLOW, PHASE 2.

The ash advisory released recently includes quite a large area:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

If this keeps up, it might make sense to start a page for Popocatépetl, as I’m doing with Nevado del Ruiz, though I’d like to hold off on that until they raise the alert — if they do. Keep in mind, this volcano has been erupting since 1994 — the increased intensity is relatively new and of short duration thus far. Anything could happen, including a drop back down to former levels.

Edit: Actually, there already is a page for earlier events, but thus far the Colossus of Puebla has not reached what I would call “major geohazard event” status yet with this eruption — on a par with Ruiz/Armero, Kilauea 2018, or La Palma 2021 — and I hope it never does.

Though it could, based on its history — something along the lines of this AI scenario:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Update, 9:24 a.m., Pacific: Good morning, Popocatépetl!

This is beautiful, terrifying, and per Dr. Carlos Valdes, totally within the range of expected YELLOW, PHASE 2, activity:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Update, May 15, 8:01 a.m., Pacific: Still at Yellow, Phase 2, as of yesterday. This was tweeted two hours ago by a volcanologist who is more often associated with Colima: “We’ll see how it — Popocatépetl — evolves.”

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Also, I found an additional information source, exactly who, I can’t tell from their Twitter bio, but some reliable volcanologists I’m following do follow them.

It’s a forecast. Read the whole thread, if you’re in the area:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

May 12, 2023, 10:23 a.m., Pacific: Almost 950 minutes of tremor yesterday, per this morning’s CENAPRED update, but alert level is maintained at YELLOW, PHASE 2.

At the moment, clouds partly hide the summit, but there seems to be only a steam plume.

Earlier this morning, Popo was chugging right along:

Update, May 11, 2023, 10:18 a.m., Pacific: The volcano is still at YELLOW, PHASE 2 alert, though it seems to be producing more frequent “puffs” that have a little more oomph.

The current VAAC advisory has a broader cloud area than I’ve noted before with Popo:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Update, May 9, 2023, 8:27 a.m., Pacific: There is no change in alert level, but you need to see and hear this explosion from earlier this morning:

CENAPRED notes in their daily updates that Popo builds domes and then blows them up.

[Layperson speculation]Right now, I’m guessing, magma is ascending more quickly, and it has more gas in it, leading to explosions.[/Layperson speculation]

Update, May 2, 2023, 5:25 p.m., Pacific: Still YELLOW, PHASE 2, but there were six explosions during CENAPRED’s reporting period, including this one:

Right now, the sun is setting behind Popo on the Tianguismanalco cam:

So beautiful! So dangerous!

So restive! Colombia’s UNGRD tweeted this video of suggestions on packing a bugout bag/maletin (Colombia)/mochila (Mexico).

It’s in Spanish, but those at risk from the Colussus of Puebla speak that language, and for the rest of us, a video is worth a thousand words:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Finally, an SO2 notice from TROPOMI. Popo triggers many such advisories; this one went out about two hours ago.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Update, April 29, 2023, 9:27 a.m., Pacific: Still Yellow Phase 2, per this morning’s update, but as Dr. Valdes tweeted a few hours ago, this volcano nevertheless is still very active.

I recognized a small pyroclastic flow in this video tweeted yesterday (that doesn’t mean it actually was one, but if so, it’s well within expected alert level):

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Update, April 26, 2023, 3:40 p.m., Pacific:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Voluminous emission at dawn today. It is still having these emissions, and in today’s report, CENAPRED notes almost 500 minutes of tremor yesterday.

Stll at Yellow, Phase 2.

April 25, 2023, 8:50 a.m., Pacific: This sums up the current situation. The VAAC advisory (typical in terms of emission size these days) came out about an hour ago:

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Original post:

This volcano, in the midst of some 26 million people who live in and around Mexico City and Puebla, has been feisty lately, with more frequent, slightly stronger blasts and more SO2 emissions.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

It’s still at Yellow, Phase 2 alert level, though, and still doing one-off vulcanian blasts (dusting some communities, including Puebla, with ash now).

  • GVP page.
  • CENAPRED’s last overflight (January 27, 2023):
  • Today’s report (Spanish).
  • Webcams de Mexico has live webcams, which are free but not embeddable
  • Worst-case scenario and other papers (jargon alert). Note: This is one of the most intensively monitored volcanoes in the world. They will let us know if it ever even thinks of moving in that direction.

Featured image: Webcams de Mexico, Altzomoni cam screenshot, May 15, 2023.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

Gravatar
WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Cancel

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.