Popocatepetl


Sunday Morning Volcano posts (for background):

Useful links

  • Update: It’s a challenge to link to CENAPRED’s updates page, but this official site seems reliable, and it’s in English.
  • Altzomoni webcam
  • Tlamacas webcam
  • Tianguismanalco webcam
  • New webcam! Chipiquixtle
  • Addition: YouTube time-lapse videos from four webcam feeds.
  • National Seismological Service webicorder PPIG
  • GVP background page.
  • Recent Washington VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Center) advisories (you won’t see Popo on this list unless it has had recent activity).
  • NOAA/CIMSS volcanic cloud page. I have it set for the last 12 hours of activity. Popo’s typical low-level vulcanian explosions don’t show up, but something bigger will, day or night. Red markings that appear occasionally are technical–for this blog, the link is simply for “an eye in the sky” on the Colossus of Puebla.
  • Interactive risk map for Popocatepetl (Spanish, but many technical terms (like “flujos piroclasticos”) are similar to English equivalents (pyroclastic flows); “ceniza” is ash)

Streaming videos, live: These may or may not work. I’ve tried embedding them before with mixed results.






Background reads:


CENAPRED Daily Updates

November 16, 2018, 5:49 p.m., Pacific: Popo did “pop off” again a few hours ago, prompting another VAAC advisory, but the “roughness” on the PPIG has decreased on the PPIG webicorder this afternoon:



Wonder if we will see a corresponding slow-down (hopefully) or other change in behavior overnight.

In the meantime, here is a serendipitous shot of the westering sun in Popocatepetl’s plume. “Fire mountain,” anyone?


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November 16, 2018, 10:40 a.m., Pacific: Not much change from what is, for the volcano I’ve been watching for a few years via online webcams, an increased level of activity.

Most recent tweet from PC_Estatal, about half an hour ago:


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There’s another VAAC advisory from about two hours ago. The alert level hasn’t changed this morning.

Dr. Zepeda’s tweet shows that volcanologists monitoring Popo have much more sensitive equipment than what we can see at the PPIG webicorder!


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Nobody messes around when 25 million lives and the economic and political heart of a nation are at risk.

Very light ashfall this morning in Puebla State:


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Here is the time-lapse video of Popo’s activity over roughly the last six hours. (I’m so old I can remember when it was a big thrill when one vulcanian puff appeared on the webcams in several days’ worth of watching…this new pattern is so not good.)




November 16, 2018, 1:58 a.m., Pacific: I’ve had trouble embedding these videos before, but will try it again because at the moment there is something coming off the summit (on the side away from the camera, unfortunately); probably another emission.



Took a screencap of it:



November 16, 2018, 12:42 a.m., Pacific: New VAAC advisory; Popo just erupted, and a somewhat larger quantity of ash, too, judging from the graphic:



No changes in alert level per the CENAPRED website, which still carries the November 15 daily update, but I’ll bet there are some ashfall reports from this.

I’m going to stay up for another hour or so, because the PPIG webicorder shows that “roughness” hasn’t dropped down. Besides being steady, it’s a little more intense now than it was 24 hours ago. It probably means little in the overall picture, but I’m a little concerned. Will see what, if anything, Popo does next.



November 16, 2018, 12:30 a.m., Pacific: A late-night check on Don Goyo. No new advisories, but a look at the NOAA/CIMSS volcanic cloud page, linked above, shows continued intermittent emissions. Can’t see much on the webcams; either the moon has set or the volcano is hidden in clouds.

While checking the news (nothing new; no ashfall reports, either), I came across this adorable critter, called a teporingo, that’s small, cute, and tough enough to live only in the high country of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, including the flanks of Popocatepetl, per this story (Spanish).


Agencia Informativa Conacyt, CC BY 4.0.


I’ll be thinking of teporingos now every time I look through the webcam at Popocatepetl’s majestic slopes.


November 15, 2018, 8:34 p.m., Pacific: Think my webcam screencap almost three hours ago caught the tail end of this:


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At present, there is a new VAAC advisory but only for intermittent emissions now.

Nevertheless, the PPIG webicorder shows very low-level “roughness”–not a technical term, but I’ve noticed it often occurs in conjunction with ash emissions. I have no idea why, because the exhalations, explosions, and most VT quakes CENAPRED mentions don’t seem to show up on it.


The lines are ordinarily thin and straight; this “roughness” is a volcano artifact from low-level emissions, I think. But I’m just a layperson. Note what looks like harmonic tremor at the end of the 1400-hours line. (SSN)


That Puebla Civil Protection account (PC_Estatal) tweeted a couple of reminders to people about bug-out bags (“mochilas”–emergency evacuation kits) and family emergency plans: nonspecific, nothing volcano related, but such reminders are always helpful.


November 15, 2018, 5:53 p.m., Pacific: Washington VAAC notes ongoing ash emissions within the last two hours.

Looks like they’re still ongoing, per the webcam view under the moonlight; no incandescence, though.



November 15, 2018, 3:54 p.m., Pacific: Some vulcanian events; unfortunately, this video ends in the middle of one of them:



Of note, today’s update says that incandescence was noted at the summit last night; this used to be fairly common, but not for many weeks now. Lava has reached the surface. Is it building a new dome?



November 15, 2018, 9:19 a.m., Pacific: With its snowy mantle, the Colossus of Puebla is majestic from almost all angles . . .

. . . at dawn:


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. . . and at present:



It is still moody, though, as events a couple hours ago show (no VAAC advisories since November 12th):


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November 13, 2018, 7:12 p.m., Pacific: See updated link above to CENAPRED’s updates in English; as long as it’s viable, I won’t repost them here. Of note, though, today they reported 47 minutes of harmonic tremor and 1 explosion.

There have been no VAAC advisories on the volcano since yesterday.


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From CENAPRED update, November 13, 2018.



November 12, 2018, 10:30 a.m., Pacific: Just the same thing over and over again each day, but this is an elevated activity level for Popo, compared to recent years. And no one knows what it will do in the next minute, hour, day, week, month, or year–not good, next to one of the largest population centers on Earth/concentrated heart of a nation’s economic and political resources.



Yes, there is a VAAC advisory up. And here’s today’s update:

November 12, 11:00 h (November 12, 17:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system recorded 194 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam and gas and small amounts of ash . . . The most important event was recorded today at 08:49 . . . Additionally four volcanotectonic earthquakes were recorded yesterday at 21:01 and 21:03 h, and today at 07:29 and 09:14 h, with magnitude of 2.7, 1.8, 1.9 and 1.6, respectively.

At the moment of this report we cannot see the volcano due to claoudy conditions, but this morning we can see the emission of volcanic gases in a northeasterly direction . . .

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

Here’s more information on the location of those VT earthquakes:


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November 11, 2018, 12:22 p.m., Pacific: Some explosions overnight, and this morning an episode of continuous, light ash emission that has a VAAC advisory in place at the moment; also 30 minutes of tremor, per CENAPRED.



One of the overnight explosions:


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Per the graphic and update, though, no explosions happened; apparently CENAPRED has redefined the volcanological meaning of the word “explosion” in reference to Popocatepetl–understandable, given this volcano’s many “exhalations” (something not seen in many other volcanoes). Wonder what counts as an explosion here now:




November 10, 2018, 10:26 a.m., Pacific: Popocatepetl is restless this morning. See Dr. Zepeda’s tweets for images, including this one (note that alert level is still Yellow, Phase 2):


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At 1213 UTC, about six hours ago, Washington VAAC reported an eruption; when I accessed their page shortly after 1800 UTC, it looked like they had just posted another advisory but it gave a 404 HTTP response and now it’s gone–they are still apparently watching the volcano closely, though in the webcams it appears back to business as usual, with lots of steam clouds (though not a train of them). Update: Now it’s up again–an emission at 1608 UTC.

None of the morning’s emissions showed up on the PPIG webicorder. Per CENAPRED’s update this morning:

November 10, 11:00 h (November 10, 17:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system recorded 166 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam and gas and small amounts of ash. The most important ones, yesterday at 18:40 h . . . and today at 5:45 h . . . 7:38 h . . . and 8:23 h . . .

At the moment of this report the visibility is reduced due to clouds; however, at previous hours an emission of steam and gas was observed being dispersed to the southeast . . .

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

Update at 10:44 a.m., Pacific: They apparently aren’t classifying that as an explosion, though it looked like one. I have found an excellent time-lapse video that someone put together from the webcam feeds.

Wait for it:



No wonder there were no ashfall reports–it dissipated quickly. This sort of behavior must be very stressful for the people around the volcano, though. Not to mention the people monitoring it!



November 9, 2018, 7:22 p.m., Pacific: Popo, about three hours ago:


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Washington VAAC issued an advisory on the volcano an hour ago. Given the time delay, I’m thinking there might have been another exhalation, but it’s too dark to tell; also, at the moment, I can’t get the webcams to display an image.



November 9, 2018, 12:16 p.m., Pacific: Highest number of exhalations in the last month, over the past 24 hours. Deformation is down; some seismic activity. They don’t mention LP quakes (which is what a tornillo is) or tremor in this morning’s report. Here’s the graphic:




November 9, 2018, 9:50 a.m., Pacific: The update isn’t up yet, but here is what they call a “postal”–Popo from a nearby town this morning:


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Despite the tranquil scene, Dr. Zepeda tweets that Popo has had at least two exhalations this morning (small ones, without unusual colors). No VAAC advisories since early on the 7th, and the PPIG webicorder has no more unusual things on it. There have been a couple of “bumps” this morning; the first might have coincided with the second exhalation (such coincidence is rare, I’ve found), but the second happened later.

The new webcam froze about half an hour ago and now it’s blank; it’s quite close to the summit, in challenging conditions, and it’s not surprising that there are technical problems shortly after installation. (Update, around midday: It’s working again, but the steam clouds Popo is huffing out are obscuring the summit.)

From yesterday:


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I’ll bet the thought of volcanologists ascending the Colossus of Puebla to install that camera has inspired at least one young person today to enter this career field. That’s wonderful!



November 8, 2018, 7:59 p.m., Pacific: All seems per the current baseline except this–I wonder what that last activity was, about an hour ago. Could it be a tornillo? It sort of resembles the ones shown in this paper, though it doesn’t have the classic screw-like shape.



If not a tornillo, it certainly looks like harmonic tremor (to this layperson, anyway).

Here are graphics from this morning’s update: deformation has not decreased, and there have been no explosions since those inky-black ones the other day. Wonder what Popo is up to now. . .




November 8, 2018, 3:50 p.m., Pacific: Something’s going on up there this afternoon, but at a very low level:



There is no VAAC advisory and the view is rather clear at the moment:



I’m guessing those are all volcano-generated steam clouds.

Not much change in this morning’s update; here is a summary:


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November 7, 2018, 9:53 a.m., Pacific: Yesterday evening’s ash emission did eventually get a VAAC advisory, but they have given the volcano an all-clear overnight. This morning, CENAPRED’s cameras see this:


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My translation of this roughly one-hour-old tweet: “From the Altzomoni camera, the constant emission of gas and water vapor heading southeast. Two wind directions at different heights are shown in the video. The traffic signal alert continues at Yellow Phase 2.”

Obviously there is a little ash in the plume, too, but none of that black inky stuff from earlier this week, and not enough to trigger another VAAC advisory. Popo has done and can keep doing this sort of stuff for decades, but one wonders what is going on inside the volcano now. We can only watch and wait . . .



November 6, 2018, 6:49 p.m., Pacific:


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Interestingly, the PPIG webicorder showed some of that “chuffing” behavior but it stopped well before 1709. There are tweets out there of later activity, too, but this live action is nice. (Correction: I got that 1709 from one of the other tweets; the time of this video is unknown.)

Here’s the webicorder:


No VAAC advisory; no change in the alert status; no reports of ashfall. You can just make out the summit outline now on the Tlamacas webcam, but no details; there is no incandescence, either.



November 6, 2018, 11:53 a.m., Pacific: Deformation slightly elevated over the last 24 hours; no more explosions. Lots more exhalations, though.



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November 5, 2018, 12:54 p.m., Pacific: Yes, the deformation did go down after those two explosions. Now, no more explosions and slightly increased tremor.



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November 4, 2018, 4:28 p.m., Pacific: Was able to get the graphics:



Will see if the deformation goes down again after the explosions. At the moment, you can dimly see the summit in the fading sunset, and apparently there is just a steam plume.

Was thinking about those inky black clouds yesterday and realized, even though I’m no geochemist, that sulfur can also look black in solution; wonder if that was ash, as per Dr. Zepeda, or perhaps a phreatomagmatic explosion of a brine pocket? If so, wouldn’t that mean that magma is very near the summit crater?

Yet there is no incandescence lately at night when the summit is visible.

Just speculating.



November 4, 2018, 9:44 a.m., Pacific: Those two ash emissions were actually the first two explosions at Popocatepetl in a while.


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Per Google Translate:

In the last 24 hours, the monitoring of Popocatépetl identified 147 exhalations . There were two explosions at 16:38 and 17:27 with an approximate height of 1.5 and 1.6 km. In addition, a volcanotectonic event was recorded today at 00:51 h with a preliminary magnitude of 2.0.

The volcano is hidden clouds on the webcam, and I still can’t find any news about ashfall.



November 3, 2018, 6:33 p.m., Pacific: Not much change in today’s update, but per Dr. Zepeda, Popocatepetl had a very-high-content ash emission about four hours ago:


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Look how dark that cloud is, compared to the typical emissions! Apparently the emission was accompanied by a long-period (LP) earthquake (these are produced by magma movement, per MTU). No VAAC advisory posted on the website since November 1st. This cloud went to the northeast, per Dr. Z., but per Puebla PC, it went northwest, towards Mexico City. Skyalert tweets that there have been various emissions this afternoon and they went toward Puebla.

Anyway, a little earlier today Dr. Zepeda tweeted:


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And per Puebla PC, there was an emission almost an hour later:

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Now it’s dark, of course, but you can make out the summit outline. No incandescence is evident.

I can find no news reports of ash fall from these emissions. Wonder why it was so dark? Mafic magma??? That dark, Hawaiian-style stuff isn’t associated with arc volcanoes like Popocatepetl, which is typically on the felsic (light-colored) end of the igenous rock spectrum.

One last note: the events didn’t show on the PPIG webicorder. They often don’t; the volcanologists, of course, have lots of other equipment.




November 2, 2018, 1:13 p.m., Pacific: Nothing much new in the updates from yesterday and today. Here is today’s graphic, showing deformation up a bit, no explosions yet, and other parameters within their typical levels lately.


CENAPRED graphic, from November 2, 2018, update. (I have no idea if that link will work for you; it did this morning for me.)


The volcano is socked in on the webcams at the moment, but here is a lovely image of it from earlier today:


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October 31, 2018, 8:26 p.m., Pacific:


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No VAAC advisory–it was light. No sign on the PPIG webicorder, either. The webcams that are clear show a dark summit but there appears to be a little rising fume of some sort up there.

No dramatic changes, but Popo seems a little different to me. Can’t put my finger on it, though. Just slightly different behavior, I guess. Not the “good ole Popo,” lazily puffing away, that I’ve been watching online for a few years; more like a volcano that is starting to seriously think about getting down to business. The volcanologists have a much better view, though, and they are keeping the alert level at Yellow Phase 2 and waiting . . . and taking cool time-lapse videos. This is from today; the puff shown above exited on the other side of the volcano. You can see how light it was. Gorgeous video, too.


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Per Google Translate:

Popocatépetl, the second most active volcano in Mexico and the one with the highest risk due to its history of explosive eruptions documented in the stratigraphic record and number of people living in its vicinity. Technical report of the hazard map of the Popocatépetl volcano.

There is no link; I think the video is the technical report referred to, or else he means this and this (both in Spanish).



October 31, 2018, 5:47 p.m., Pacific: It probably doesn’t matter at all, but I note that this morning’s ash emission, unlike yesterday’s, was followed by a few signals, as if it wasn’t quite done or was trying to restart.




October 31, 2018, 2:23 p.m., Pacific: Another episode on the PPIG webicorder, early this morning, and this time it got a VAAC advisory.



The ash has dissipated now, per Washington VAAC, and on the webcam Popo appears to be chuffing steam again–its summit is hidden by curly white clouds that probably aren’t weather related.

And per CENAPRED (via Google Translate):

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 89 exhalations were identified. During most of the time covered by this report, visibility was not available; however, those exhalations that could be seen were accompanied by water vapor, gas and light amounts of ash. In addition, three vulcanotectonic earthquakes were recorded, the first two yesterday at 18:37 and 19:34, with magnitudes of 2.7 and 1.5, respectively, and the third this morning at 9:55, with a magnitude of 1.5. During the night there was visibility towards the volcano and no incandescence was observed.

At the time of this report there is no visibility to the volcano, but earlier today there was an emission of water vapor, gas and light ash content dispersed to the northeast.

The CENAPRED urges NOT TO APPROACH the volcano and especially the crater, for the danger that involves the fall of ballistic fragments and in case of heavy rains away from the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and mudflows.

The Popocatepetl Volcanic Alert Traffic Light is Yellow Phase 2.

Odd that there is ash but no incandescence (see image below from yesterday, too–very dark summit).

Meanwhile, life goes on. At the fair in nearby Tlaxcala, per this news story (Spanish), a
Day of the Dead offering from secondary school students to Popocatepetl and its neighbor Iztaccihuatl has won second prize.

Here is an image of the Tlaxcala fair from 2015.


(Isaacvp via Wikimedia, CC BY-SA 4.0)


Thanks to volcanic ash, the soil around most volcanoes is very fertile. That’s basically why people live so close to these dangerous fire mountains everywhere on Earth.



October 30, 2018, 8:06 p.m., Pacific: Well, whatever was going on has now ceased, and PPIG is back to its typical almost flat line. There isn’t much moonlight, but the Tlamacas webcam now shows a steam plume rising–typical activity for Don Goyo.



October 30, 2018, 4:52 p.m., Pacific: That “chuffing” continues . . .


SSN, PPIG webicorder


. . . and the clouds have cleared, showing what looks to me like a low-level plume of very light ash (no VAAC advisory or change in alert level found).


Screen captures of current Altzomoni (top, presumably upwind) and Tianguismanalco (bottom, presumably downwind) webcams.



October 30, 2018, 12:31 p.m., Pacific:


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119 exhalations of water, gases (per today’s full update page, SO2 outgassing over the last 24 hours is low compared to earlier phases of the eruption), and light quantities of ash (no VAAC advisories since yesterday), and 15 minutes of tremor.

Per the PPIG webicorder, Popo is doing something at the moment, but clouds hide the summit–I suspect at least some of those clouds are volcanigenic and the Colossus of Puebla is chuffing out huge quantities of steam. There is no ash plume from the long-distance cam view, relatively clear, at Tianguismanalco.




October 29, 2018, 11:33 a.m., Pacific: No mention related to the signal I noted yesterday–think it was a small landslide/debris flow.

October 29, 11:00 h (October 29, 17:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system was recorded, 88 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and ash. The most important exhalation was presented today at 09:44 h . . . Additionally, four volcanotectonic events were recorded, one yesterday at 18:20 and the rest today at 04:15, 04:36 and 07:13 h, with a magnitude calculated of 1.8, 3.0, 2.1, and 2.6, respectively. During the night, there was no visibility towards the crater of the volcano, due to the weather conditions.

At the moment of this report is possible to observe that the emissions of steam, gas and ashes are dispersed to the north-west direction . . .

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

Those ashes may be remnants of a small emission about five hours ago that got a VAAC advisory.

What concerns this layperson a little is that the volcano hasn’t had an explosion for a while; this is a change in its recent activity level. Ordinarily that would be great news, but other parameters haven’t dropped.


From CENAPRED October 29, 2018, update.


The deformation is a wee bit elevated, too, though nowhere near where it was at some earlier phases of this long-lasting eruption.

Does any of this mean something? I have no idea. But that, combined with what probably was a landslide yesterday, makes me watch it closer. Given the weather, the landslide would be expected. But given Popo’s history and currently elevated activity, I think this “smoking mountain” deserves (and surely is getting from scientists and emergency planners) even closer scrutiny and watchful waiting right now.



October 28, 2018, 7:35 p.m., Pacific: I didn’t include the CENAPRED update today because it was basically unchanged. However, just noticed this interesting signal on the PPIG webicorder, from a few hours ago:



There is no VAAC advisory since the 24th, no mention of anything unusual in the Twitter feeds I check because they always are informative, and the pattern looks a little weird–I’m a layperson and can say no more than that. It might have been somebody moving something near the seismometer for a while or it’s just possibly a signal from the M6.1 in El Salvador this afternoon around the same time, although, again, it’s kind of a weird-looking, stretched out signal.

A landslide or debris flow on the volcano’s flanks, perhaps? There certainly is enough rain for it, and landslides are happening in other parts of this general region.

Hopefully, CENAPRED, Dr. Zepeda, or somebody else knowledgeable will have something to say about it by tomorrow morning’s update. Anyway, it seems clear that, although the volcano’s summit is shrouded in clouds, Popo has not had a sudden increase in eruptive activity.



October 27, 2018, 11:46 a.m., Pacific:


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Many scientific terms are similar in both English and Spanish; “seis” is “six”; “baja” means “low.”

Dr. Zepeda also tweets that there was a swarm of four earthquakes a little east of Tlamacas, apparently quite separate from the seismic activity inside Popocatepetl. That would be what showed up on the webicorder yesterday (scroll down to yesterday’s update here); I think it’s that large blue circle on the left in these diagrams–not underneath the volcano.


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Today’s graphic shows no explosions:


CENAPRED daily update, October 27, 2018.



October 26, 2018, 12:29 p.m., Pacific: The PPIG webicorder is interesting . . .



. . . but I don’t see those four events addressed in today’s update (nor are there any VAAC advisories up; the volcano appears to be steaming heavily, from what little the webcams show at present):


October 26, 11:00 h (October 26, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 168 exhalations . . . accompanied by steam and gas were recorded. It was registered four volcanotectonic earthquakes yesterday at 14:56 h, 15:13 h, 21:25 h and 22:29 h with magnitud of 1.5, 2.3, 1.5 and 1.2, also were registered 29 minutes accumulated in this episode of low amplitud tremor.

In most of the time we could see the volcano. At the time of this report, we have visibility to the crater . . . and it has a light emission of steam and gas to the nor-noreast side.

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

Today’s graphics show that Popo has been doing a little bit of everything except explosions recently (though none approaching what it has done earlier in this eruption)–perhaps it’s building up to one of its low-level (hopefully) explosions, if it didn’t already happen, per the webicorder.


CENAPRED daily web update, October 26, 2018.



October 25, 2018, 1:23 p.m. Pacific: No VAAC advisories since yesterday; today’s update is not much changed from yesterday’s, with a little more seismicity and a little less tremor.


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October 24, 2018, 10:34 a.m., Pacific: One explosion overnight and a VAAC advisory, breaking a week without ash emissions. At the moment, Popo is steaming away in the webcams.


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October 24, 11:00 h (October 24, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 152 exhalations (image 1), (image 2), accompanied by steam and gas were recorded. It was registered an explotion today at 03:26 h (image 3), (image 4), (image 5), (video 1) and 13 minutes accumulated in this episode of low amplitud tremor.

In most of the time we could see the volcano. At the time of this report, we have visibility to the crater (image 6) and it has a light emission of steam and gas to the nor-noreast side.

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

Of note, there was another small emission about 2-1/2 hours ago, per Dr. Zepeda.


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October 22, 2018, 3:08 p.m., Pacific: How can you not love a volcano with this ‘tude?


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Easy. When it explodes and/or collapses and kills thousands of people.

Hope we never see that devastation from Popocatepetl. Today’s CENAPRED update is baseline, with no mention of tremor. Again, no VAAC report since the 17th. However, Popo has had over 80 exhalations, so it doesn’t seem that the conduit is plugged.



October 21, 2018, 12:39 p.m., Pacific: Graphics and a terribly beautiful image will do for today; no major changes, and no VAAC advisories since the 17th.


From CENAPRED October 21st, 2018, web update.


From CENAPRED October 21, 2018, daily update.



October 20, 2018, 1:06 p.m., Pacific:



October 20, 11:00 h (October 19, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 41 exhalations, accompanied by steam and gas. Additionally, was recorded five volcanotectonic earthquakes, the first were ocurred yesterday at 11:54, 12:45, 16:18 and 19:15 pm with magnituds of 2.4, 2.0, 2.4 and 1.7, the last one was ocurred this morning at 05:45 am with magnitud of 2.4.

In most of the time we cannot see the volcano due to cloudy conditions, however, the few lapses in the clear sky can be observed the constant emission of water vapor and other gases (image 1).

At the time of this report, continues the intense cloudiness in the area of the volcano,however any important change in the activity will be notified in a timely manner.

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

Washington VAAC has not issued an advisory on Popocatepetl since early on the 17th.



October 18, 2018, 6:58 p.m., Pacific: The volcano was apparently at baseline over the last 24 hours or so–VAAC hasn’t issued an advisory since yesterday morning; however, the summit is hidden in clouds most of the time. I wouldn’t have added anything today, except that this tweet shows a cloud that mystifies me: it appears to be a species of lenticular cloud that I haven’t seen before!


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Quite a nice hat for Don Goyo!


October 17, 2018, 10:15 a.m., Pacific: All is at baseline, apparently, except for increased VT seismicity. Will just include a summary tweet from Puebla and this morning’s CENAPRED graphics.


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Washington VAAC issued an advisory yesterday afternoon, and from the graphic it looked to be a fairly big cloud, but it quickly dispersed. I’ve seen no online news reports or tweets about ashfall from that; the area is experiencing lots of rain, which may explain it. Weather makes it very difficult to see the summit these days, and apparently that is true for satellites, too, but this morning VAAC only noted one possible emission around 0400 UTC and that has dispersed.



October 16, 2018, 11:12 a.m., Pacific: A summary of today’s bulletin. Note that LPs are showing up again, per this tweet. “It’s imporant to respect the security radius of 12 km.”


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However, Popo appeared at baseline (and quite impressive) from Puebla this morning:


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The volcano is steaming more than it has done over the few years that I’ve been watching the webcams (of note, at the moment Popo is playing peekaboo with the clouds).

Update, October 16, 2018, 2:14 p.m. Pacific: Per this story (Spanish), the steaming is due to increased environmental humidity and colder air temperatures at this time of year, which makes sense. However, they report an investigator at the University Center for the Prevention of Regional Disasters noting that Popo’s activity has significantly increased, with up to 500 exhalations and 4-5 explosions per day over the last four weeks. CENAPRED’s Scientific Advisory Committee kept the Yellow Phase 2 alert level at the last meeting, but they are watching it carefully.

Also, Dr. Valdes uses a sand clock to show how the LP quakes are generated inside the volcano:


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Per Google Translate: “An hourglass allows us to understand how “lp” earthquakes are generated in a volcano. Here the material exerts pressure to pass through a narrow neck or conduit, generating vibration signals. In a volcano, these signals imply the rise of fluids that contain magma, gas and water.”



October 15, 2018, 12:33 p.m.: A dawn image, taken from Mexico City:


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“Popocatépetl covering Iztaccíhuatl [another, much sleepier volcano just to the north, or left in the image] with his cloak.” This refers to the old legends.

October 15, 11:00 h (October 15, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 121 exhalations were identified. During most of the time covered by this report there has been no visibility towards the volcano. However, from 06:00 pm, an intermittent plume of gases and water vapor directed to the northwest could be observed (image 1). In addition, at 23:43 a volcanotectonic event with magnitude 1.4 is recorded.

During the night there was partial visibility of the crater volcano. Incandescence was not observed but the emission of steam and gases the period of most intensity lasted approximately between 06:50 and 09:50 am, the height of the plume was less than 1 km and dispersed in a northwest direction (Video 1).

At the time of this report, There is no visibility to the volcano due to the intense cloudiness in the area.

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

Was able to get into the graphics this morning–they are reassuring.


From CENAPRED website, October 15, 2018.


However, I was reading in the Pozzo et al. paper yesterday (see above) that Popo is considered a “low deformation” volcanic system, and that VT quakes are sometimes eruption precursors, too. Overall, though, the volcano seems at its baseline.

Everyone is maintaining their watch, though:


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Sorry, I’m not good with spoken Spanish. This is an official of Santiago Xalitzintla, saying, per this tweet by Puebla State, that they are making evacuation plans in a volcano emergency.

And here is the current image from Tlamacas webcam; not sure what those white streaky things are, but given the huge steam plume chuffing from the volcano’s crater, am guessing it’s ice/snow scrubbed clean of ash and at an angle that catches sunlight:




October 14, 2018, 11:26 a.m. Pacific:


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Clouds are obscuring the volcano in the webcams at the time of writing, but it does occasionally show itself.

Today’s update, per Google Translate (except for the traffic signal located in Amarillo [see my note farther down in this past week’s updates]):

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems, 161 exhalations were identified, as well as 48 minutes of low amplitude tremor. For most of the time covered by this report there was no visibility to the volcano, but when it could be seen an intermittent plume of gases and water vapor was observed to the northwest.

During the night there was partial visibility of the volcano crater. No incandescence was observed but the emission of gases was observed.

From this morning until the moment of this report, partial visibility has been obtained, and the intermittent emission of water vapor and gases continues.

The CENAPRED urges NOT TO APPROACH the volcano and especially the crater, for the danger that involves the fall of ballistic fragments and in case of heavy rains away from the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and mudflows.

The Popocatepetl Volcanic Alert Traffic Light remains at Yellow Phase 2.



October 13, 2018, 9:25 a.m., Pacific: Still waiting for this morning’s update. On cams, the volcano is socked in, but apparently Don Goyo felt kindly toward webcams in the general direction of Xalitzintla (where some tiemperos live):


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Washington VAAC reports a very light ash emission about two hours ago.


10:24 a.m., Pacific: Here it is, via Google Translate. No mention of tremor or seismicity. Wish I could check the deformation/seismicity graphics.

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 384 exhalations were identified, accompanied by water vapor, gas and ash. Additionally an explosion was recorded yesterday at 11:40 h.

During the night there was partial visibility of the crater of the volcano and incandescence could be observed. At the time of this report there is no visibility, any event will be dispersed in a westerly direction.

The CENAPRED urges NOT TO APPROACH the volcano and especially the crater, for the danger that involves the fall of ballistic fragments and in case of heavy rains away from the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and mudflows.



October 12, 2018, 12:05 p.m., Pacific: The volcano is still in Yellow, Phase 2, but some of the news in the update is concerning (emphasis added), as is the tweet below today’s quote below. That tweet shows serial events continuing for a little while this morning (a couple of hours ago at the time of writing).


In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 452 exhalations were identified, accompanied by water vapor, gas and ash. Also recorded were 30 minutes of LP train and tremor, recorded from 03:36 to 04:07 today. There were also 82 minutes of tremor of medium and low amplitude. Additionally, two volcanotectonic earthquakes were recorded, recorded yesterday at 4:34 pm and 8:28 pm, with magnitudes of 1.0 and 2.4, respectively.

During the night there was no visibility, in the morning you could see the crater of the volcano. At the time of this report there is no visibility, any event will be dispersed in a westerly direction.

The CENAPRED urges NOT TO APPROACH the volcano and especially the crater, for the danger that involves the fall of ballistic fragments and in case of heavy rains away from the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and mudflows.


LP means “long-period” and these quakes are produced as moving magma breaks rocks, per Michigan Tech. This is an eruption precursor, per seismologists in the Pacific Northwest, but in 1980 Mount St. Helens had LP quakes for months before it went off.



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VAAC’s current advisory mentions another emission within the past hour and a dispersing cloud of ash extending about 30 nautical miles from the summit. Of course, they don’t get into seismological information.

Once again, I can’t get into the update site to see the deformation and seismicity graphics. And the webcam shows mostly clouds. Sigh.



October 11, 2018: No training exhalations mentioned in this morning’s update, but VAAC did issue multiple advisories on Popo yesterday. Mostly it was cloud-covered, but CENAPRED did get this (from yesterday):



Again, I can’t get into the report website this morning, so here’s a Google Translate version:

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 411 exhalations were identified, accompanied by water vapor, gas and ash. There were also 3 explosions yesterday at 10:39, 15:21 and 15:33. Additionally, 118 minutes of tremor were recorded. During the night partial visibility was observed and slight incandescence was also observed. At the time of this report there is partial visibility, any event will be dispersed in the northeast direction.

The Popocatepetl Volcanic Alert Traffic Light is located in Amarillo Phase 2.

I just love the way GT interprets that last line. The machine detects “traffic signal” and the name of a Texas town, and therefore adds interprets “se encuentra” the word as “located”–it’s not in the original it is used as “remains at”; and “amarillo” is Spanish for “yellow.” See the “Challenges…” link at the top of this page for reasons why Mexico went with a traffic-signal volcano alert system.

Here is the volcano during a moment of atmospheric clarity this morning.


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The State of Puebla has a very active Twitter feed, which is excellent for getting news. Surely other states near the volcano are conducting the same organization meetings that Puebla mentions holding this morning, where officials are planning shelters, evacuations, search and rescue operations, and so forth.


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If Don Goyo is strolling across the flanks of Popocatepetl this morning, he would surely approve!

VAAC’s latest advisory is from several hours ago and just mentions a “discrete puff” back then. (We all must adapt our words to Popocatepetl’s rather unique eruption style!)

Here is a news story (Spanish) about measures in the state of Tlaxcala.



October 10, 2018, 10:56 a.m., Pacific: Fewer exhalations than described in yesterday’s report, but for the first time a train of exhalations, which is concerning. Per Google Translate, since I can’t get into the update site just now:

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 315 exhalations were identified, accompanied by water vapor, gas and ash. Two volcanotectonic earthquakes were also recorded, one yesterday at 2:33 pm and today at 07:33, with magnitude 1.2 and 1.7, respectively. Additionally, 182 minutes of tremor and 11 minutes of exhalation train recorded today from 01:20 to 01:31 h. During the night there was partial visibility and incandescence was also observed. At the time of this report there is partial visibility, any event will be dispersed in the northeast direction.

The Popocatepetl Volcanic Alert Traffic Light is located in Amarillo Phase 2.

The volcano’s summit is socked in by weather; via other sources, VAAC just reported another light ash emission.

Going by time, this was the start of the exhalation train during the wee hours, from Webcams de Mexico:


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October 9, 2018, 1:02 p.m., Pacific: Over 500 exhalations in the last 24 hours, per CENAPRED! This is way higher activity than any I’ve noticed over the last several years that I’ve been casually watching Popocatepetl on the webcams. However, today’s graphic shows decreased tremor, and while the seismic activity is still high, it’s still slightly less than the average from 1996-1998; also, no change in deformation. There reportedly is more magma, but the open conduit is handling it and the volcano isn’t pressurizing a lot, it looks like (but remember, I’m a layperson 🙂 ).


From CENAPRED website, October 9, 2018.


October 09, 11:15 h (October 09, 16:15 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system was recorded, 509 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and ash (imagen 1) . Additionally were recorded three explosions yesterday at 17:20 (imagen 2) (video 1) , 17:34 and 18:34 h (imagen 3) (video 2) . Also was recorded 274 minutes of tremor. During the night, it was possible to observe the crater, but incandescence was not observed. At the moment of this report is possible observe the crater but any exhalation was dispersed to the north-est direction (imagen 4) .

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments. . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

Potentially good news is that Washington VAAC hasn’t put up an advisory on Popo since 1022 UTC, roughly ten hours ago.



October 8, 2018, 4:53 p.m., Pacific:


CENAPRED, October 8, 2018 (the top labels got cut off: exhalations (the vulcanian eruptions/steam emissions) on the left, volcanotectonic earthquakes on the right.


October 08, 11:00 h (October 08, 16:15 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system was recorded, 316 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and ash (imagen 1), (imagen 2) . Additionally were recorded five explosions, three yesterday at 11:19, 15:21 and 16:51 h, and two today at 05:27 and 07:02 h (imagen 3), also was recorded 580 minutes of tremor. During the night, it was possible to observe the crater, but incandescence was not observed. At the moment of this report not possible observe the crater but any exhalation was dispersed to the north-est direction (imagen 4) .

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments (image 4) and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

Then, a little after 5 p.m. local time:


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Washington VAAC advises the cloud extends 20 nautical miles northeast of Popo, but is expected to dissipate quickly. The alert level is still yellow, phase 2:


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October 7, 2018, 9:45 a.m., Pacific: Found this handy visual summary of the daily update. Sr. Zepeda is CENAPRED’s director of analysis and risk management. And look at that–784 minutes of tremor! It was low amplitude, though, per the text update, and a look at the information on CENAPRED’s website graphics (below the tweet) shows no increase in deformation or seismicity. Weather conditions make it impossible to see the volcano in the webcams, but Washington VAAC reported continuous emissions (i.e., the usual stuff lately) this morning.


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CENAPRED, October 7, 2018.



October 6, 2018, 9:17 Pacific: CENAPRED update today isn’t up yet. Here is an image of the volcano from Puebla just a few minutes ago, but VAAC hasn’t put up an advisory on it. The last one on Popocatepetl, as of the time of writing is 0931 UTC.


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Speaking of the VAAC center in Washington–the real center–have you seen this?


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I’m pretty sure it’s a fake account and a fauxtegraph. No blue check for one thing. Too, real US government accounts always have disclaimers on them. For another, there isn’t anything in any tweet that some troll couldn’t have picked up elsewhere on the Web–nothing really original. Finally, I’ve seen nothing on the VAAC website to indicate they even have a Twitter account–they don’t need followers, they need to get information to pilots in a timely way, and Twitter isn’t necessary for that.

So, both account and picture are probably fake. The closest we’re going to ever get to a conjunction of Popocatepetl and Aztec gods is my screen cap yesterday (see yesterday’s images). 🙂

Anyway, I read a news story yesterday saying that an Aztec god of death wasn’t emerging from Popocatepetl and thought it was satire. But apparently it was based on this fake image. Some people buy it.

That’s too bad, but fortunately people watching the volcano as it really is recognize its true beauty. Here is a view from October 2nd, as the colossus interacts with the atmosphere.


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And on an even more healthy psychological note, the local people are handling the stress in their traditional way. A “tiempero” has made the news (Spanish).

I mentioned this tradition in a previous post (where I misspelled the Spanish word).

These “timekeepers” are local people who have met the personification of Popocatepetl, often as children while out on the volcano’s flanks. That’s Don Goyo; I think it’s a reference to the man’s curly hair (as well as a Catholic saint); these curls resemble the steam clouds that often surround the top of the volcano.

Don Goyo appears to reassure people in times of trouble and warn them of danger.

It helps, as this video from Clio TV shows: I asked them, and there is no English-language transcript, but images speak a thousand words, and you can watch the tiempero in action when Popo suddenly awoke in 1994 and scared everybody, from the countryside up into the university and government levels. (And perhaps you have a computer ability to translate the captions–I don’t on my mobile device.)

The translation of the title is “Popocatepetl: The Volcano That Listens.”



9:54 a.m., Pacific: Ah, here we go:

October 06, 11:00 h (October 06, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system was recorded, 67 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and ash (image 1). Additionally were recorded eight explosions, five yesterday at 17:30, 22:29, 22:35, 22:37 and 22:57 h, and three today at 00:49, 02:46 y 07:58 h, also was recorded 480 minutes of harmonic tremor. During the night, it was possible to observe the crater, and we cannot observe incandescence. At moment of this report is possible to observe that the emissions of steam, gas and ashes are dispersed to the north-west direction (image 2).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.


From CENAPRED October 6th update.



October 5, 2018: A look at where current activity is at in relationship to the past month, as well as a look at deformation (left–note how high it was in 2000!) and seismic activity (much higher in 2016):


CENAPRED releases these on their website daily, along with the update.


And here is the update for today; Popo has been having a lot of vulcanian explosions, but the alert level remains the same.

October 05, 11:00 h (October 05, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system was recorded, 188 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and ash (image 1). Additionally were recorded nine explosions, seven yesterday at 10:26, 13:53, 16:04, 16:28, 21:39, 23:02 and 23:04 h and two today at 01:28 and 09:36 (image 2) , also was recorded 358 minutes of harmonic tremor. During the night, it was possible to observe incandescence during some events, (image 3) .

At moment of this report is possible to observe that the emissions of steam, gas and ashes are dispersed to the west south-west direction (image 4).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

Popo, about 15 minutes ago:


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That ash, dispersing towards Mexico City and environs, plus the immense steam cloud that the colossus is huffing out right now, as seen from Puebla a few minutes ago:


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Still watching and waiting . . .


PS: Another explosion, soon after the one shown above in tweets . . . maybe Don Goyo is trying to shoot down that bug passing Aztec deity. :):



Update, October 5. 2018, 5:38 p.m.: No real changes, just checking the information. This happened about mid-afternoon:


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(Cortes Pass is indeed the pass Hernan Cortes used to cross the mountains and reach the Aztec capital centuries ago; not all historians are on board with the story that he sent a soldier (or one volunteered, depending on which source you’re using) to climb Popocatepetl and get sulfur to replenish the gunpowder supplies. And yes, Popo was doing much the same thing it’s doing now–vulcanian eruptions (though not the same one; the volcano had been quiet for a while before it erupted in 1994).

Anyway, that eruption shown in the tweet above has created an ash plume extending 9 nautical miles west of the summit, per Washington VAAC. An online news search doesn’t show any flight delays because of it, but Popo’s activity yesterday put enough ash into the air to affect flights at Mexico City and Toluca airports, per this story (Spanish).



Update, October 4, 2018, 5:59 p.m., Pacific: No change with Popo (another explosion since the last update); just wanted to share this. It is typical of tweets I’ve seen here and in other local and national jurisdiction, where officials get out and talk with people and local authorities, helping them get prepared for an increase in the eruption level.


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Per Google Translate, “Meeting of the authorities of San Miguel Tecuanipa, with personnel of the Disaster Prevention Directorate of ProtecciónCivilEstatal to define the points of concentration of people in case of being necessary an evacuation by activity of the Popocatepetl volcano.”

As mentioned below, they are also arranging for shelters, setting up plans for school evacuations, repairing evacuation routes (this thing has been going on for 24 years and the climate can be very rainy), and so forth. Forewarned is indeed forearmed.

At this stage, you just don’t know how many lives these people might have saved today with this outreach.


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Update, October 4, 2018, 1:10 p.m., Pacific: Whatever delayed it, the October 4th CENAPRED update is now up:

October 04, 11:00 h (October 04, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system was recorded, 173 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and ash (image 1). Additionally was recorded two explosions, one yesterday at 21:04 h, and one today at 08:46 h (image 2) , and two volcanotectonic events , one yesterday at 11:19 h and one today at 07:25 h with magnitudes 1.5 and 2.4 respectively. Also was recorded 358 minutes of harmonic tremor. The next video shows the activity from 06:42 and 09:55 h (video 1). During the night, it was not possible to observe the crater continuously, but was possible to observe some incandescence during some events, (image 3) .

At moment of this report is possible to observe that the emissions of steam, gas and ashes are dispersed to the west south-west direction (image 4).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2

.

Here is a time-lapse video from SEGOB of this morning’s activity; interesting meteorological effects, both in the foothills and valleys as the sun heats the air and also above and downwind of the volcano, presumably from hot air parcels:




Update, October 4, 2018, 10:32 a.m.: Uh-oh. Apparently there isn’t a unified front from the authorities. This story just came in. An excerpt, per Google Translate:

MEXICO CITY

The General Coordination of Civil Protection of the State of Mexico stressed that in the Popocatépetl volcano the activity prevails in the scenarios foreseen for the yellow alert Phase 2, in spite of the explosions that occurred on Thursday morning.

Through his Twitter account @pciviledomex, he asked the public to keep informed and observe the security measures especially if there is ash fall, as well as to be attentive to the volcanic warning light.

This morning saw another explosion, with a fumarole more than a kilometer high and with a high ash content, informed the National Coordinator of Civil Protection of the Ministry of the Interior (Segob), Luis Felipe Puente.

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In his account @LUISFELIPE_P of Twitter, the federal official explained that before the possibility of ash fall, it is important that the population follow the recommendations of civil protection to avoid damages to health, although the traffic light of volcanic alert remains in Yellow Phase 2. . .  

Here’s what I don’t understand–what happened to CENAPRED? What is Sr. Fuente’s scientific basis for his statements, and why is it apparently no longer public now?

Dr. Valdes changed his Twitter profile over the weekend from Director General of CENAPRED to seismology investigator at the University of Mexico. I didn’t mention it here because it had no apparent connection to the volcano. He did not mention Popo again until this morning, when he tweeted:


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“The National Center for Prevention of Disasters . . . constantly monitors and evaluates the activity of Popocatepetl volcano.”

But starting today, the top stories on their website are about astronomical phenomena and flooding (which is happening in the area). There is no October 4th update from CENAPRED, even though it is in eruption as you can see in the cams (above) and other shared imags here.

Now, I’m sure everyone is trying to do what is best for the people of Mexico–the stakes are incredibly high here. There probably is a reasonable explanation for what has happened. But this must be shaking up a lot of people today in the affected area. Thankfully, I’ve never been in such a high-pressure situation, but everything I’ve read about communication during a volcanic crisis emphasizes the importance of scientists and authorities speaking with one voice.

There seems to have been a fracture here. And it comes at a very bad time.

I will simply ask this and leave it hanging: is it scientifically accurate to maintain Popocatepetl at Yellow Phase 2 this morning, same as the previous mornings in recent years? When does the alert level change, who decides it, and what measures for public safety will be enabled?

Also, what can we expect from the volcano in the coming days and weeks?

It’s not enough just to say, the alert color is the same and stay in your homes and protect yourselves. You have to give people some information to work with, especially at a time like this.


Update, October 4, 2018, 9:47 a.m., Pacific: No word yet from CENAPRED per its website, and I can’t get into the monitoring page, but here’s the current view from near Puebla:


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October 4, 2018: Several explosions at Popo this morning, just checking Twitter feeds while waiting for CENAPRED update (update: it’s late this morning). This is from a Webcams de Mexico Twitter account, Google translation below:


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“What to do before this activity? Respect the radius of 12 km from the crater. Avoid rumors. Wear masks and sweep the ash. Prevent the ash from entering the water tanks/cisterns. DO NOT leave pets and their food exposed to the outdoors.”

Chemicals in ash can be harmful and will leach into food, water, grass, etc. In 1783, many Icelanders experienced famine because of this effect on their livestock (from the Laki eruption) as well as on their crops.

Per other tweets, there are reports of a “combustible odor” in Puebla, but that probably has nothing to do wtih the volcano’s emissions, as the wind is in the opposite direction, as shown on this map of predicted ashfall from one of this morning’s explosions:


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October 3, 2018: Still waiting and watching:

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems, 163 exhalations were identified, accompanied by water vapor, gas and light amounts of ash. Three explosions, two recorded yesterday at 10:13 and 22:37 and one today at 04:26 with emission of water vapor, gas and moderate ash content. In addition, 324 minutes of harmonic tremor, of which 20 minutes recorded amplitude between 4 and 30 um, peak to peak, the others had amplitudes less than 4 um. During the night, the volcano could be observed with a constant emission of water vapor and gas as well as slight incandescence. At the time of this report, the continuous emission of water vapor and gas is observed, with a southwest west direction.

The CENAPRED urges NOT TO APPROACH the volcano and especially the crater, for the danger that involves the fall of ballistic fragments and in case of heavy rains away from the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and mudflows.

The Popocatepetl Volcanic Alert Traffic Light is located in Amarillo Yellow Phase 2.


Addendum, October 3, 2018, 6:26 p.m. Pacific: Just came across this lovely view. Yes, that’s more activity than Popo has done lately. Still, it’s a piece of art. Unless you feel it yourself–and it has gotten me watching the volcano over the past several years on the CENAPRED webcams–it’s hard to describe the affection one develops for this beautiful, terrible place.


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October 2, 2018, 5:56 p.m., Pacific: No change in alert, but this tweet from Puebla officials shows how volcanologists can monitor a volcano even when they can’t see it very well (of note, the rainy season at Popocatepetl is almost over and webcam views will clear around the end of this month):


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“Explosion at Popocatepetl at 2:51 p.m. [local time]. The eruptive column from this explosion rose 3 km in height. Without direction reference of ash dispersion because of cloudiness, the wind direction indicates to the west, or to Mexico City [technically, the State of Mexico].”


October 2, 2018, 12:44 p.m.: Don Goyo is majestic, even when it is scary:


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In CENAPRED’s update this morning, they gave more detailed information about the harmonic tremor (emphasis added); first time I’ve seen them do that. However, the alert is still Yellow Phase 2.

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems, 163 exhalations were identified, accompanied by water vapor, gas and light amounts of ash. Three explosions, two recorded yesterday at 10:13 and 22:37 and one today at 04:26 with emission of water vapor, gas and moderate ash content. In addition, 324 minutes of harmonic tremor, of which 20 minutes recorded amplitude between 4 and 30 um, peak to peak, the others had amplitudes less than 4 um. During the night, the volcano could be observed with a constant emission of water vapor and gas as well as slight incandescence. At the time of this report, the continuous emission of water vapor and gas is observed, with a southwest west direction.

The CENAPRED urges NOT TO APPROACH the volcano and especially the crater, for the danger that involves the fall of ballistic fragments and in case of heavy rains away from the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and mudflows.

The Popocatepetl Volcanic Alert Traffic Light is located in Amarillo Phase 2.


October 1, 2018, 8:25 p.m., Pacific: Nothing new–I just keep checking the sources. Another low-level emission at the moment:


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There is no change in alert status, either, but this official Puebla account does warn against believing in rumors, like one apparently circulating now that a sudden evacuation is about to be called. It’s false: still Yellow Phase 2 and no evacuations are imminent.

Yet.

Volcanoes are stressful, even when they don’t erupt violently.

Addendum, October 2nd: This article (Spanish) may explain the rumors: officials have 700 schools near the volcano set up to act as shelters if and when an evacuation is called. Actually, after running that through Google Translate, they’re planning to evacuate 700 schools, with about 20,000 students, near Popocatepetl, if necessary. “Thousands” of schools are to be used as shelters, but these are at some distance from the volcano.

Meanwhile, at the time of writing this, Popo simmers under the faint moonlight:



Yes, that is ash, and an advisory is in place:


Mexico City area is likely getting a dusting again.


October 1, 2018: A vulcanian eruption at 10:13 this morning, local time. This is not the big one (VAAC Washington called it small), but like many of these explosions, it’s bigger than what the volcano has been doing in recent years.


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You see that white glacier on the right? I suppose as the magma gets higher, the edifice will warm up and that glacier will melt, bringing lahars and floods into the lowlands. CENAPRED routinely warns people to stay out of ravines and canyons, because it’s risky even with rainfall.

Just another volcanic hazard at Popocatepetl. Sigh.

Another tweet shows that they are using HYSPLIT, the same model that volcanologists used to predict vog travel at Kilauea during this summer’s LERZ eruption (and probably they’re still using it there, of course):


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Of note, Puebla is on the other side of the range (clear, in this image, which shows potential ashfall in Mexico City and nearby areas).

I wasn’t a volcanophile back in 1980 and so missed the media coverage of Mount St. Helens’s reactivation and eventual eruption. But truly this watchful waiting at Popocatepetl must be similar, though the US media is missing it because it’s happening in another country. This is even worse, because so much infrastructure and so many people are at risk.

Things seem a little quieter as described by CENAPRED this morning, but that’s no longer comforting in terms of a possible long-term trend, in light of this weekend’s announcement from UNAM experts. But the alert level is still the same.

Per Google Translate:

September 30, 11:15 h (September 30, 16:15 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 84 exhalations were identified, accompanied by water vapor, gas and light quantities of ash. An explosion at 07: 01h with emission of water vapor, gas and moderate ash content of 2400m in height. A volcanotectonic earthquake was also recorded yesterday at 6:59 p.m. with magnitude 1.5. In addition, 23 minutes of harmonic tremor of low amplitude. During the night, the volcano was observed with a constant emission of water vapor and gas 800m high. At the time of this report, the continuous emission of water vapor and gas is observed, with a west direction.

The Popocatepetl Volcanic Alert Traffic Light is located in Amarillo Yellow Phase 2.

Amarillo, besides being a town in Texas, means “yellow.”


September 30, 2018: An impressive explosion this morning, a little after 7:


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Yep, Don Goyo is packing more muscle these days.

And, per Dr. Valdes, here’s an image of a light explosion at Popo this morning at 10:06 local time. They’ve installed new seismic stations, GPS, and surveillance cameras, thanks to the Preventive Fund working together with CENAPRED and the University of Mexico’s Geophysics Institute.


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I’m impressed at how seriously the volcanologists are taking this and also at the news coverage, which is calm, measured, and informative. I think here in the States there would be a media circus if scientists said a large amount of magma was rising in a volcano; but then, 25 million people being at risk when it erupts is a very sobering consideration.

Be safe, people!

Here is today’s CENAPRED update:

September 29, 11:00 h (September 29, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system, 183 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and small amounts of ash (image 1), (image 2) , as well as light incandescence (image 3) . An explosion was registered at 02:10 h (image 4), (image 5), (video 1). Additionally, 92 minutes of low amplitude-harmonic tremor. Also, three volcanotectonic earthquakes were registered yesterday at 11:07 h, 18:41 h and 19:44 h with magnitudes 2.5, 1.7 and 2.6, respectively.

CENACOM confirms ash falling in comunities to the west of the Popocatépetl: Atlautla, Tehuixtitlan, Cuecuecuautitla, Estado de México.

At the moment of this report we can see the volcano the continuous emission of volcanic gases in a westerly direction (image 6) , (image 7).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.



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September 29, 2018: More of the same, including light ashfall, with a little bit less tremor, but a few small earthquakes that caused local headlines.

Light ashfall in parts of Mexico City this morning:


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September 29, 11:00 h (September 29, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system, 183 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and small amounts of ash (image 1), (image 2) , as well as light incandescence (image 3) . An explosion was registered at 02:10 h (image 4), (image 5), (video 1). Additionally, 92 minutes of low amplitude-harmonic tremor. Also, three volcanotectonic earthquakes were registered yesterday at 11:07 h, 18:41 h and 19:44 h with magnitudes 2.5, 1.7 and 2.6, respectively.

CENACOM confirms ash falling in comunities to the west of the Popocatépetl: Atlautla, Tehuixtitlan, Cuecuecuautitla, Estado de México.

At the moment of this report we can see the volcano the continuous emission of volcanic gases in a westerly direction (image 6) , (image 7).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments. . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.


Here’s an earlier eruption this morning, seen from Puebla, I think, on the other side of the range:


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Remember, Don Goyo has been doing this almost continously since 1994. What a strain on local communities, authorities, and emergency management officials! Why? Because it’s impossible to predict whether the next outburst might be much bigger; it’s possible, based on the volcano’s history.

My concern, just as a lay onlooker, is that there does seem to be a slight uptick in the overall activity recently (per previous notes below); that’s why I’ve started live-blogging it.

Update, 1 p.m. Pacific: Just read this article (Spanish), and learned that volcanologists suspect the increased activity may be due to that large quake in the area last year. They will be placing four more monitoring stations around Popo in coming weeks.

Excerpts, per Google Translate:

The activity of the Popocatépetl volcano is increasing and one of the causes would be linked to the magnitude 7.1 earthquake, which occurred on September 19, 2017, with an epicenter on the state boundary between the Puebla and Morelos states, said Ana Lillian Martín del Pozzo, volcanologist at the Institute of Geophysics (IGf) of the UNAM

…the specialist said that the colossus has not stopped, “he has been awake since December 1994, he has not gone to sleep, but the earthquake of 19 September of last year, whose epicenter was in a relatively close area, affected it. ”

“Its dynamism has been registered for a month, showed a high point on Thursday September 20, and yesterday saw another important issue column,” he said in a statement issued by the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).

The volcanologist said that last Sunday a group of geologists collected samples of ash to analyze and identified magma droplets, which possibly “are associated with domes that appear to be smaller, are formed when the magma rises and are sprayed, and have been presented in chain.

One is created and explodes, then another, and explodes, but we must be careful and careful to know if there are changes. “This is a different volcanic activity than what has been presented in other periods,” he said.

On the “Effects of the September earthquakes on the Popocatépetl”, Ramón Espinasa Pereña, deputy director of Volcanic Risks of the Research Directorate of the National Center for Disaster Prevention (Cenapred), … explained that in 2015 the colossus had an average of 16.5 monthly vulcano-tectonic earthquakes; in 2016 that number increased to 35; in 2017, before September, the average was 39, “but it was already increasing”.

From that month until December last year, it rose to 110, and in January 2018 “the record was broken with 221, and although it has decreased since February, we are still above base levels, with 87,” he explained.

He said that the day after the earthquake on September 19, the Popocatépetl had the maximum of exhalations that have been had in a single day, with 286, although that number began to increase much earlier.

“The good news is that it is feasible to predict a major eruption from monitoring data with a well-functioning network thanks to a project with the Geophysics Institute, station relay and well seismograph placement, instead of seismographs. surface, “he said.

In that sense, he pointed out that six stations currently operate in the cone of the volcano and in the next few weeks another four will be placed, below…

I just read the UNAM bulletin (Spanish), released online about three hours ago, and am going to do a post on it.


September 28, 2018: No major changes in this morning’s update; tremor is down a bit. Per Dr. Valdes, director general of CENAPRED, “Exposion at Popocatepetl volcano, 10:27. A clear difference between water vapor and ash. Alert yellow, phase 2. Safety radius [no-go zone] 12 km.”


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September 27, 2018: Put yourself in the volcanologist’s place. This goes on day after day, decade after decade, in a volcano with a much more violent history, and there are some 25 million people at risk.

And through it all, constantly on alert, these heroes maintain their watch and issue their daily reports.

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 141 exhalations were identified, accompanied by water vapor, gas and light amounts of ash. Likewise, there were 4 explosions at 22:59, 23:59, 00:48 and 02:44 h. In addition 309 minutes of harmonic tremor of low amplitude. At the time of this report, the continuous emission of volcanic gases is observed, which winds disperse to the west.

CENAPRED urges NOT TO APPROACH the volcano and especially the crater, for the danger of falling ballistic fragments and in case of heavy rains away from the bottoms of ravines because of the risk of landslides and mudflows.


September 26, 2018: Popo hasn’t settled down, but it’s not increasing its activity, either. Yellow Phase 2, still, and no more updates tweeted by Dr. Valdes thus far. Per Google Translate today:

In the last 24 hours, through the monitoring systems of the Popocatépetl volcano, 107 exhalations were identified, accompanied by water vapor, gas and light amounts of ash, the most important were those recorded yesterday at 4:12 pm and 17 : 03 h. Likewise, there were 3 explosions, 430 minutes of low amplitude harmonic tremor and three volcanotectonic earthquakes, with magnitude between 1.4 and 1.8. During the night, slight incandescence was observed over the crater. At the time of this report there is no visibility to the volcano, however early in the morning the continuous emission of volcanic gases, which the winds disperse to the west, was observed.

One good thing to come of all this excitement–local authorities are reviewing the condition of evacuation routes (Spanish), in case they are eventually needed.


September 25, 2018: From Dr. Valdes, early this morning (that’s not flowing lava but incandescent fragments):


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And this morning’s daily update (CENAPRED didn’t issue special reports–vulcanian activity like this is what Popocatepetl does now and then; the concern is that it isn’t known whether this can escalate into a bigger event–Popo has some Plinian eruptions and flank collapses in its past [those links are to general info; see background post links above for more details of Popocatepetl’s own history]):



September 25, 11:00 h (September 25, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system 64 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and small ammounts of ash were detected, thwe most important events were recorder today at 09:07, 09:18 and 10:26 h (image 1 , image 2 and image 3 ). Also were registered eleven explosions, the most important events were ocurred yesterday at 11:51 and 12:16 h (video 1 and video 2 ) and today at 03:18 h (image 4 and image 5 ), this event generate a column between 2 km high with moderate ash content and fragments incandescent.

Additionally, were detected 484 minutes of low amplitude tremor and two volcanotectonic earthquakes, the first was registered yesterday at 18:36 h and the last one was recorder today at 05:59 h with respective magnitudes of 2.3 and 2.9.

At the moment of this report there is partial visibility towards the volcano in which the continuous emission of water vapor and other gases that disperse in a south-southeast direction (image 6) .

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

An interesting point, at least to this layperson, is that the tremor didn’t quiet down after the explosions as it often does. I’m guessing Don Goyo, instead of slowly pushing up lava to form a dome that sits there for a while, is actively extruding lava at a fairly high rate; it collects around the vent; and when the weight of the accumulated lava gets too much, boom! (lots of gas in the lava, too), even as more lava comes up.

Addendum: A lovely, though scary, view of one of yesterday’s plumes seen from Mexico City:


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(Edited September 25, 2018, 7:05 p.m.)



September 24, 2018, 5:19 p.m., Pacific: OK, I’m wrong. A look at the Twitter feeds for Dr. Carlos Valdes, head of CENAPRED, and SkyAlert, quoting VAAC, shows that this has been going on episodically for a while, at least six hours, with ash fall reports. They haven’t raised the alert level.


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Area in red: ash reports. Area in yellow (which includes Mexico City): ash forecast. (Update: Per this story [Spanish], it won’t be in sufficient quantity to cause any risk.)


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September 24, 2018, 5:10 p.m. Pacific: This morning’s bulletin wasn’t much of a change so I didn’t post it here. However, a look at the cams just now shows increased activity; thus far, CENAPRED hasn’t updated their website. I think this just began; it looks vulcanian (repeated relatively small-scale blasts instead of a big blow-out), but some people are going to get ashfall from this.




White clouds mean steam (or they might be regular clouds); dark cloud is ash; note remnant of previous burst on the right.

September 23, 2018: Not all of the Spanish-language bulletin today made it into the English version–parts in brackets are my own translation.


After uncapping some explosively fizzing soda bottles, I’m glad Don Goyo is apparently releasing its own contents gradually!


September 23, 11:00 h (September 23, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system 49 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and small ammounts of ash were detected. Also five explosions occured at 20:50 h, yesterday (image 1) [which threw some fragments over the north flank of the volcano and produced an ash column of 1.4 km above the crater], and today at 00:18 (image 2) , 00:37 (image 3) [with an ash column of 1.9 km], 06:35 h (imagen 4) and 09:29 h (imagen 5) . The emissions were dispersed towards west-southwest.

Additionally, 442 minutes of low amplitude tremor and two volcanotectonic earthquakes with preliminar magnitud of 1.9, were detected.

At the moment of this report the visibility is limited due to clouds; at earlier hours an emission of steam and gas was observed (image 6) .

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.


September 22, 2018: Thankfully, Don Goyo has quieted down a bit, except for that one explosion.

September 22, 11:00 h (September 22, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system 40 low intensity exhalations, accompanied by steam, gas and small ammounts of ash were detected. Also three explosions occured at 14:11 (image 1) , 15:18 (image 2) and 20:23 (image 3) . The first one produced an ash column with height of 2.8 km above the crater. It was dispersed towards west-southwest.

Additionally, 21 minutes of low amplitude tremor were detected.

During the night incandescence and a continuous emission of steam and gas were observed (image 4).

At the moment of this report, an emission of steam and gas is present (image 5) .

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.


September 21, 2018: Right now, the webcams are clear and Popo is breathtakingly incandescent under the bright moonlight. Pity these aren’t in color!



They also did an overflight today. See how the floor of the crater around that steaming hole is up close to the top of the walls? If an eruption produces a lot of material, there are going to be pyroclastic flows, because there’s no room inside the crater for it. (Learned about this in the “Challenges” paper linked above.)

September 21, 15:40 h (September 21, 20:40 GMT)

UPDATE
Today, with the aid of the Federal Police, a reconnaisance overflight of Popocatepetl##s crater was made . . . The volcano was actively emmitting a continuous plume of steam and gases that made observations difficult . . . Nevertheless, it could be seen that the inner crater remains the same size, and inside, the remains of dome 80, emplaced at the end of August and partially destroyed by the recent explosions, could be seen . . .

September 21, 11:15 h (September 21, 16:15 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems were identify 48 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and volcanic gas, also twelve explosions at 11:11 . . . , 11:50 . . . , 12:10 . . . , 12:53 . . . , 13:02 . . . , 13:49 . . . , 14:31 . . . , 15:58 . . . , 16:12 h . . . , 04:36 . . . , 05:30 . . . and 09:18 h, additionally was recorder 152 minutes of tremor and one earthquake at 15:06 h with magnitude of 1.3.

During the night it was partially observed towards the volcano due to the high cloudiness . . .

At the time of this report, we have intermittent visibility to the volcano, we observe that the emission of steam and other gases were disperse in a west-southwest direction . . .

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

September 20, 2018: Don Goyo is restless.



September 20, 11:00 h (September 20, 11:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring system identified 76 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam, volcanic gases and small amounts of ash. . . Additionally, eleven explosions were recorded, yesterday at 13:42, 13:49, 15:17 . . . 17:18, 18:37 . . . , 19:08 . . . , 21:21 . . ., 21:28 y 23:35, and this morning at 01:48 y 03:17 h.

Also, 542 minutes of low-amplitude harmonic tremor were recorded.

At the time of this report, we have intermittent visibility to the volcano, we observe that the emission of steam and other gases and ash is dispersed in a west direction . . . .

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.


September 15, 2018: I haven’t been able to access the CENAPRED reports page, but the volcanic traffic alert signal is still Yellow, Phase 2. The webcams show some increased activity but nothing more than usual: incandescence at night, fuming and exhalations during the day, and occasional explosions.


September 11, 2018: Lots more tremor! Also, VT events up a bit.


September 11, 11:00 h (September 11, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems were identify 93 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and volcanic gases (image 1), additionally was recorder 387 minutes of harmonic tremor, three volcanotectonic events, one yesterday at 17:34 h, and two today at 02:05 and 06:49 h, with magnitude Mc 1.4, 2.8, and 1.7 respectively and four explosions, two yesterday at 22:22 and 23:37 h and two today at 03:24 and 08:49 h. (image 2)

During the night was possible to observed incandescence which increase in some episodes (image 3).

At the time of this report, we have intermittent visibility to the volcano, we observe that the emission of steam and other gases were disperse in a north-northeast direction (image 4)

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.


September 9, 2018: Both explosions and tremor up a bit over the last 24 hours. That’s a lot better than increased tremors and no explosions (which would mean pressure was building up).




September 9, 11:00 h (September 9, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, were identified through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems 279 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and volcanic gases and eight explosions yesterday at 14:42 h, 16:02 h, 16:03 h, 16:30 h, 21:12 h and 23:32 h and today at 02:41 h and 05:45 h (image 1), (image 2), (image 3), (image 4), (image 5), (image 6), (video 1), (image 7), (image 8). Also, was registered one volcanotectonic earthquake yesterday at 19:11 h with magnitude 2.4. Additionally, were detected 56 minutes of harmonic and low amplitude tremor.

During the night we observed a gently incandecense which increase in some episodes (image 9).

At the time of this report, we have visibility to the volcano, we observe the emission of water vapor and other gases that disperse in a south direction (image 10), (image 11), (image 12), (image 13).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

The scenarios foreseen for this phase are:

1. Explosive activity of low to intermediate level.

2. Ash fall in nearby towns.

3. Possibility of short range pyroclastic flows and mudflows .

Special emphasis is placed on the following recommendations:

1. Continue the safety radius of 12 km, so staying in that area is not allowed.

2. Keep the controlled traffic between Santiago Xalitzintla and San Pedro Nexapa through Paso de Cortés.

3. Civil Protection authorities, keep your preventive procedures, in accordance with their operational plans.

4. People, be alert to the official information disseminated.

In case of ashfall, address the following recommendations:

• Cover nose and mouth with a wet handkerchief or face mask.

• Clean eyes and throat with pure water.

• Avoid contact lenses to reduce eye irritation.

• Close windows or cover them up, and stay indoors as much as possible.

Popocatepetl Volcano monitoring is performed continuously 24 hours a day. Any change in activity will be reported in due course.

DMVEM


September 7, 2018: Will just share a graphic from this morning’s CENAPRED update, showing the gist–exhalations (those “puffs” Don Goyo gives off occasionally) and VT earthquakes up a bit, harmonic tremor decreased:

CENAPRED/UNAM

September 6, 11:20 h (September 6, 16:20 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, were identified through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems 37 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam and volcanic gases (image 1) (image 2) (image 3) (video 1) (video 2). Also, were registered yesterday an explosion ocurred at 14:01 h, today a volcanotectonic earthquake at 04:19 h with 1.7 magnitud and a total of 141 minutes of low amplitude tremor in this period.

During the night we observed a gently incandecense which increase in some episodes (image 4).

At the time of this report, we have visibility to the volcano, we observe the emission of water vapor and other gases that disperse in a norwest direction (image 5).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments . . . and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.


Low-amplitude tremor back:

September 5, 11:20 h (September 5, 16:20 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, were identified through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems 57 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam (image 1) (image 2) (image 3). Four explosions were detectead, yesterday at 17:24 and 18:09 h, today at 01:12 h and 04:21 h. Also, a vulcanotectonic event was detected yesterday at 11:32 with a 1.6 magnitude. Finally, a total of 290 minutes of low amplitude tremor was recorded.

During the night we observed a gently incandecense which increase in some episodes (image 4).

At the time of this report, we have visibility to the volcano, we observe the emission of water vapor and other gases that disperse in a west direction (image 5).


No tremor mentioned in this bulletin–will go back to just keeping an eye on Don Goyo’s daily updates and the news and only post here when there is some notable change in activity or any shift of the volcanic “traffic signal” alert status. Glad the Colossus of Puebla has settled down a little!



September 1st, 11:20 h (September 1st, 16:20 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems, 24 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam were identified (image 1). Additionally, 2 explosions were recorded. In addition, three volcanotectonic earthquakes were detected today at 05:28, 05:50 and 08:34 h, with magnitude of 1.4, 2.4 and 1.4 respectively.

During the night intense incandescence was observed above de crater (image 2) (image 3).

At the time of this report, we can see the continuous emission of volcanic gases in a northwesterly direction (image 4).

At the time of this report, there is no visibility, although earlier it was seen with a slight emission of steam and gas that the wind disperses to the west-southwest (image 7).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments (image 5) and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

The scenarios foreseen for this phase are:

1. Explosive activity of low to intermediate level.

2. Ash fall in nearby towns.

3. Possibility of short range pyroclastic flows and mudflows .

Special emphasis is placed on the following recommendations:

1. Continue the safety radius of 12 km, so staying in that area is not allowed.

2. Keep the controlled traffic between Santiago Xalitzintla and San Pedro Nexapa through Paso de Cortés.

3. Civil Protection authorities, keep your preventive procedures, in accordance with their operational plans.

4. People, be alert to the official information disseminated.

In case of ashfall, address the following recommendations:

• Cover nose and mouth with a wet handkerchief or face mask.

• Clean eyes and throat with pure water.

• Avoid contact lenses to reduce eye irritation.

• Close windows or cover them up, and stay indoors as much as possible.

Popocatepetl Volcano monitoring is performed continuously 24 hours a day. Any change in activity will be reported in due course.

GVCJ


Much less harmonic tremor reported in this bulletin–not surprising, after 36 low-level explosions in five hours!

August 31, 11:20 h (August 31, 16:20 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems, 144 low intensity exhalations accompanied by steam were identified (image 1). Additionally, 36 explosions were recorded with light amounts of ash and volcanic gases (imagen 2) (imagen 3). In addition, three volcanotectonic earthquakes were detected today at 04:39, 06:06 and 07:06 h, with magnitude of 1.6, 1.7 and 1.54 respectively, and 10 minutes of low amplitude harmonic tremor.

During the night intense incandescence was observed above de crater (image 4) (image 5).

At the time of this report, we cannot see the volcano. But this morning we can see the continuous emission of volcanic gases in a westerly direction (image 6).

At the time of this report, there is no visibility, although earlier it was seen with a slight emission of steam and gas that the wind disperses to the west-southwest (image 7).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments (image 5) and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

The scenarios foreseen for this phase are:

1. Explosive activity of low to intermediate level.

2. Ash fall in nearby towns.

3. Possibility of short range pyroclastic flows and mudflows .

Special emphasis is placed on the following recommendations:

1. Continue the safety radius of 12 km, so staying in that area is not allowed.

2. Keep the controlled traffic between Santiago Xalitzintla and San Pedro Nexapa through Paso de Cortés.

3. Civil Protection authorities, keep your preventive procedures, in accordance with their operational plans.

4. People, be alert to the official information disseminated.

In case of ashfall, address the following recommendations:

• Cover nose and mouth with a wet handkerchief or face mask.

• Clean eyes and throat with pure water.

• Avoid contact lenses to reduce eye irritation.

• Close windows or cover them up, and stay indoors as much as possible.

Popocatepetl Volcano monitoring is performed continuously 24 hours a day. Any change in activity will be reported in due course.

GVCJ


August 30, 2018: Volcano alert level unchanged, but I think it’s worth keeping an eye on and have set up this page, which is better for multiple updates.

Per CENAPRED this morning:

August 30, 11:00 h (August 30, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems, 78 low intensity exhalations accompanied by water vapor and gas and a small amount of ash were identified (image 1). Additionally, two explosions were recorded today at 02:43 and 09:55 h (imagen 2). In addition, three volcanotectonic earthquakes were detected today at 03:18, 06:32 and 07:07 h, with preliminary magnitude of 1.8, 1.4 and 1.5, respectively, and 145 minutes of low amplitude harmonic tremor.

At the time of this report, there is little visibility of the volcano. If an ash emission were presented, it would have a west-southwest direction (image 3).

At the time of this report, there is no visibility, although earlier it was seen with a slight emission of steam and gas that the wind disperses to the west-southwest (image 4).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments (image 5) and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

The scenarios foreseen for this phase are:

1. Explosive activity of low to intermediate level.

2. Ash fall in nearby towns.

3. Possibility of short range pyroclastic flows and mudflows .

Special emphasis is placed on the following recommendations:

1. Continue the safety radius of 12 km, so staying in that area is not allowed.

2. Keep the controlled traffic between Santiago Xalitzintla and San Pedro Nexapa through Paso de Cortés.

3. Civil Protection authorities, keep your preventive procedures, in accordance with their operational plans.

4. People, be alert to the official information disseminated.

In case of ashfall, address the following recommendations:

• Cover nose and mouth with a wet handkerchief or face mask.

• Clean eyes and throat with pure water.

• Avoid contact lenses to reduce eye irritation.

• Close windows or cover them up, and stay indoors as much as possible.

Popocatepetl Volcano monitoring is performed continuously 24 hours a day. Any change in activity will be reported in due course.

REP


August 29, 11:00 h (August 29, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems, 112 low intensity exhalations were identified, accompanied by steam and gas (image 1).

Additionally, 47 minutes of low-amplitude tremor were recorded, three volcanotectonic seisms ocurred yesterday at 10:50, 18:36 and 21:18 h, with magnitudes of 2.0, 2.1 and 1.4, respectively. During the night visibility was limited, and slight incandescence could be perceived over the crater (image 2).

This morning the volcano has been visible, with an intermitent fumarole of steam and gases, which looks denser during the larger exhalations (image 3).

At the time of this report, there is no visibility, although earlier it was seen with a slight emission of steam and gas that the wind disperses to the west-southwest (image 4).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments (image 5) and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.


Original post (edited August 30, 2018):

They haven’t changed the status–tremor events like the one described in the CENAPRED bulletin (pasted below) happen around restless volcanoes. But I’ve been reading this article (it’s free, and the whole expert but nontechnical book on volcano hazards and communicating risk is worth downloading from Springer if you’re interested, or you can read it online).

It’s worth bringing this beautiful but dangerous volcano up again.


Per CENAPRED:

August 28, 11:00 h (August 28, 16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours, through the Popocatepetl volcano monitoring systems, 90 low intensity exhalations were identified, accompanied by steam and gas (image 1).

Additionally, 40 minutes of low-amplitude tremor were recorded, one volcanotectonic seism of magnitude 1.5 ocurred tonight at 00:57 h, and one explosion was detected, which could not be corroborated due to lack of visibility. During the night an intermitent fumarole was visible (image 2).

This morning the volcano has been visible, with an intermitent fumarole of steam and gases, which looks denser during the larger exhalations (image 3).

At the time of this report, there is no visibility, although earlier it was seen with a slight emission of steam and gas that the wind disperses to the west-southwest (image 4).

CENAPRED emphasizes that people SHOULD NOT go near the volcano, especially near the crater, due to the hazard caused by ballistic fragments (image 5) and in case of heavy rains leave the bottoms of ravines by the danger of landslides and debris flows.

The Volcanic Traffic Light Yellow Phase 2.

The scenarios foreseen for this phase are:

1. Explosive activity of low to intermediate level.

2. Ash fall in nearby towns.

3. Possibility of short range pyroclastic flows and mudflows .

Special emphasis is placed on the following recommendations:

1. Continue the safety radius of 12 km, so staying in that area is not allowed.

2. Keep the controlled traffic between Santiago Xalitzintla and San Pedro Nexapa through Paso de Cortés.

3. Civil Protection authorities, keep your preventive procedures, in accordance with their operational plans.

4. People, be alert to the official information disseminated.

In case of ashfall, address the following recommendations:

• Cover nose and mouth with a wet handkerchief or face mask.

• Clean eyes and throat with pure water.

• Avoid contact lenses to reduce eye irritation.

• Close windows or cover them up, and stay indoors as much as possible.

Popocatepetl Volcano monitoring is performed continuously 24 hours a day. Any change in activity will be reported in due course.

REP


IMG_20180828_111355_334


Featured image: Popocatépetl from Cholula, by Graham C99, CC BY 2.0.


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