Status:
Yellow, Phase 2.
- Webcams de Mexico has live webcams, which are free but not embeddable
- Current CENAPRED report (Spanish).
- Washington VAAC page.
- GVP page.
Good morning!
¡Buenos días! Así amanece hoy el volcán #Popocatépetl.
Vista San Nicolás de los Ranchos #Puebla vía @jabed1
Para ver en tiempo real: https://t.co/4yt8RjRzbm pic.twitter.com/JrWSujPxP6
— Webcams de México (@webcamsdemexico) May 18, 2023
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May 18, 2023,8:28 a.m., Pacific: Got online this morning, saw that Puebla had instituted remote learning for students in communities likely to get ashfall; that the governor of Puebla was addressing the eruption situation with a morning press conference; and that news articles are starting to list communities in the possible evacuation zone; and given all that plus Popocatépetl’s location in the middle (literally) of tens of millions of people — though “only” 56,000 of them are close enough to the volcano to be at high risk, per news reports — well, it seemed time to start doing daily posts for a while, although the alert status is unchanged so far.
At present, ash advisories keep coming. At the moment, there is a dramatic steam plume visible through thickening weather clouds on cams, and this VAAC advisory is in effect:
FVXX20 KNES 181155
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20230518/1155Z
VAAC: WASHINGTON
VOLCANO: POPOCATEPETL 341090
PSN: N1901 W09837
AREA: MEXICO
SUMMIT ELEV: 17693 FT (5393 M)
ADVISORY NR: 2023/598
INFO SOURCE: GOES-16. WEBCAM. NWP MODELS.
HYSPLIT.
ERUPTION DETAILS: CONT VA EMS SEEN IN SAT AND
WEBCAM
OBS VA DTG: 18/1146Z
OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL230 N1919 W09729 – N1850 W09737
– N1859 W09836 – N1903 W09836 – N1919 W09729 MOV
E 20KT
FCST VA CLD +6HR: 18/1800Z SFC/FL230 N1929 W09640
– N1838 W09650 – N1859 W09837 – N1904 W09837 –
N1929 W09640
FCST VA CLD +12HR: 19/0000Z SFC/FL230 N1920
W09641 – N1832 W09650 – N1858 W09838 – N1904
W09837 – N1920 W09641
FCST VA CLD +18HR: 19/0600Z SFC/FL230 N1904
W09836 – N1832 W09650 – N1746 W09715 – N1859
W09837 – N1904 W09836
RMK: INCREASED VA ACT OVER LAST FEW HRS WITH VA
MOV E-LY AND EXTDG ARND 70 NM FM SUMMIT. NWP
GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONT E MOV THRU T+12 HRS WITH A
MORE SE MOV BY T+18 HRS. MOV AND HGT BASED ON
SAT, WEBCAM, AND MODEL GUIDANCE. …KIBLER
NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20230518/1800Z
Tweeted a few minutes ago by Puebla state government (of note, they are downwind of the volcano right now; Mexico City is upwind):
#RuedaDePrensa | La @PC_Estatal, informó que autoridades del CENAPRED, realizaron una supervisión e informaron que las manifestaciones que ha presentado el volcán #Popocatépetl, están dentro del parámetro Amarillo fase 2, por lo que exhortan a mantener la calma y no acercase. pic.twitter.com/yKE9vtH88y
— SEGOB Puebla (@Segob_Puebla) May 18, 2023
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Twitter translation: “The
@PC_Estatal reported that CENAPRED authorities carried out a supervision and reported that the manifestations that the volcano #Popocatépetl has presented are within the Yellow phase 2 parameter, so they urge you to remain calm and not approach.”
Of note, though Mexico City is not getting ash right now, I think a few of its outer parts might be included in any evacuation orders.
Mexico City has also been experiencing one of its occasional seismic swarms, and Dr. Carlos Valdes points out that this is not connected with the volcano:
Los “microsismos” de la CdMX, no tienen relación con la actividad Popo. Curiosamente sismos muy lejanos con Mag grandes pueden “modificar” la actividad de volcanes. La caída de un lápiz en una estufa, no altera una olla de presión caliente, pero si pateamos fuerte la estufa si. pic.twitter.com/u6j4m4XmQD
— Dr. Carlos Valdes (@CarlosMValdes1) May 18, 2023
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I like his analogy:
“The “microseisms” of the CdMX, are not related to the Popo activity.
Interestingly, very distant earthquakes with large Mag can “modify” the activity of volcanoes. The fall of a pencil on a stove does not alter a hot pressure cooker, but if we kick the stove hard it does.” (Twitter translation)
Also, if you can understand spoken Spanish (even if not, the visual analogy comes through loud and clear):
Sobre microsismos y volcanes. pic.twitter.com/wTF3pjKYdf
— Dr. Carlos Valdes (@CarlosMValdes1) May 18, 2023
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Earlier posts:
Featured image Popocatépetl in early 2019, by Puebla Civil Protection (Spanish)
Flight To Wonder 